Poker-related

Three weeks ago I created a poker log using Excel. For the columns, there are Notes on my play, Net gain/loss, Hourly rate, Number of tables, Game description, Grade, Time start, Time end, Time spent, and probably the most important–Expenses (which are the amount lost due to bad play). Bad play=chasing flushes, straights, sets, etc with bad odds (pot odds and/or implied odds), bad bluffs, bad calls, playing out of position, etc.

A lot of people use the BB per hour to describe their performance. I came up with my own: Profit/Expenses (due to bad play) ratio. For instance, today, I turned two pair (A8o) and I raised the original better (he had bet 30) to 75. He called. River card put out a K. He bets 100 (he’s first to act). I had reason to believe he had me beat (most likely AK), but I wasn’t disciplined enough to fold there (sure enough, he had AK). Though most probably couldn’t lay that down, I still consider it a bad play. So in that column, I’d put down 100 bucks for amount due to bad play.

If you get sucked out on, (e.g., if someone catches a straight flush on you on the turn–you flopped Q high flush–after he calls your big raise–and catches his one outer on the turn. This happened to me last Saturday…), that would not count as expenses (due to bad play).
Although it’s not mathematically correct to say that if you add the denominator and numerator, you’ll get your theoretical maximum earnings (if you played optimally), it helps to think that though (‘penny saved is a penny earned’). Even if you try to pull a fast one and get lucky, that’s still accounted for in the numerator.

I think for very good players (top 15-20 percentile), the profit/expense (due to bad play) is around 2:1. I’m guessing that the upper echelon (top 5-10 percent) is somewhere between 3:1 and 4:1. After crunching three weeks worth of data, I’ve noticed that I come out ahead 3 out of every 4 sessions (i.e., usually means win at least half the buy-in amount). However, the times that I do lose, I lose almost twice as much as when I win. This probably suggests that the times that I do win, I’m disciplined enough to know when to quit and the times that I lose, I’m probably too stubborn to admit that it’s just not my day and probably should cut my losses.

My current [(profit)/(expense due to bad play)]ratio is 2:1. Hopefully, in a few weeks, I can say that my ratio in March was 3:1 (while maintaining my average hours per day to 1.5 hrs/day).

My goal is to collect enough data to do some trend analyses to spot patterns. By tracking your progress every time you play, you can catch yourself playing poorly (losing X amount for 4 consecutive sessions AND playing more than 2 hours might be a red flag) that you otherwise would be oblivious to.