2006 NBA Draft preview

Many pundits are calling this draft the most unpredictable draft in years.  Most people have Bargnani going #1, but I believe Tyrus Thomas will go #1 to the Raptors.  Bargnani will go #2 to Chicago and there will a trade announced (like the Anfernee Hardaway-Chris Webber deal back in ‘93) between Toronto and Chicago.  Toronto ends up getting either more future draft picks and/or some players in the deal, plus the player they wanted all along, Bargnani.  Yes, I know, a bold prediction, but I’m going with my gut on this one.

But if I were Raptors GM, I would work out a deal with the #5 (Atlanta) Atlanta or #6 (Minnesota) and try to get Randy Foye (in three years, people will be talking more about Foye than anyone in the draft), and get a couple more quality players and/or future draft picks.  

Orlando will select Rodney Carney with the 11th pick. 

Here’s my mock draft (top 15):

1. Toronto Raptors — Tyrus Thomas, SF/PF, LSU

2. Chicago Bulls — Andrea Bargnani, PF, Italy
(From New York)

3. Charlotte Bobcats — Rudy Gay, SF, Connecticut

4. Portland Trailblazers –  LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, Texas

5. Atlanta Hawks –  Brandon Roy, SG, Washington

6. Minnesota Timberwolves — Randy Foye, PG/SG, Villanova

7. Boston Celtics — Adam Morrison, SF, Gonzaga

8. Houston Rockets — Marcus Williams, PG, Connecticut

9. Golden State Warriors — Shelden Williams, PF, Duke

10. Seattle Sonics — Cedric Simmons, PF, NC State

11. Orlando Magic — Rodney Carney, SG/SF, Memphis

12. New Orleans Hornets — Patrick O’Bryant, C, Bradley

13. Philadelphia 76ers — Maurice Ager, SG, Michigan State

14. Utah Jazz — Ronnie Brewer, SG, Arkansas

15. New Orleans Hornets — J.J. Redick, SG, Duke
(From Milwaukee)

GMAT prep Day 1, 2

This past weekend was very unproductive.  Got sidetracked on Friday night, flirting with the idea of getting a new car (2006 Lexus IS 250, Audi A4, etc) with manual transmission and spent hours on eBay, Carsdirect, etc.  I must’ve been tired to be considering paying that much for a car at this point in time, considering that my WRX with 56k miles is still in good shape and fun to drive. 

Spent part of Sunday and Monday reviewing the Word Translations study guide.  Word Translations (combinatorics, probability & statistics, venn diagrams, etc) is one of the more challenging quantitative subject topics, so I wanted to make sure that I didn’t just skim through it.  Did all the problem sets at the end of the chapters.  However, I still need to do the problem sets for the 11th edition and the Quantitative review book since these are more similar to the GMAT format (the chapter problem sets are more word problems without answer choices that tests mastery of material).  For the questions that I either didn’t get the first time around or that I spent a lot of time on, I circled in the book and also included the problem # in my Word Translation Mindmap (I created the Word Translation Mindmap to summarize the main conceps and alert to the more challenging concepts–sort of like a crib sheet–so I don’t have to read the entire book again). 

I’m banking on the Mindmap strategy to improve my study habits.  One thing I realized is that in the past, I had a tough time picking a book and actually finishing it.  I think the thought of flipping pages or reading many pages at once seemed grueling to me (i must have some form of ADD), so I never get past 100 pages or so.  But with Mindmapping, studying’s now kinda fun (forces me to really know the material and not skim) and when I want to review the material, it’s a huge time saver.  Okay, enough about Mindmapping. 

Did some review of combinatorics and algebraic word translations on Monday morning.  Couldn’t study at night because had to go out for dinner and was too stuffed to do anything afterwards (note to self: eat in moderation and as if you’re going to exercise afterwards).  On Tuesday, listened to the Manhattan class recording (session 6)–which took about 2-3 hours. Also mindmapped the main concepts and included screenshots of the slides (captured using SnagIt 8 program) in the mindmap. 

On Saturday at 9am sharp, I’ll take my first practice (diagnostic) computer-adaptive test at a remote location (best way to simulate the testing conditions).  It’s good to know that I’ve gone through 6 of the 7 study guides (the remaining study guide focuses on Geometry).  I’ll spend the rest of the weekend reviewing all the problems (and creating a mindmap to summarize results and areas that I need to work on).

Wednesday 6/28: 1).  Purchase GMAT-Club Challenges (challenging quantitative problems), 2)  Mindmap Chapters 1-2 in Geometry study guide.  Do problem sets for those chapters. 3) Word Translations Problem Solving and Data Sufficiency in Quantitative Review (timed). 

Thursday 6/29: 2) Mindmap Chapters 3-4 in Geometry study guide.  Do problem sets for those chapters.  3) Review missed problems in Quantitative Review (update mindmap)

Friday 6/30: 1) Review mindmaps for all completed class recordings (1-7) and study guides.  2) Pick a few difficult problems from each subject topic to do as a refresher.  Go to sleep before midnight. 

GMAT prep Day 0

Today, I officially signed up to take the GMAT (September 19th).  The test is roughly 4.5 hours and costs $250.  I was ’supposed’ to start prepping in the Spring but a lot of things got in the way.  Actually, the mental block can be summed up in one word: Poker.  It’s too bad because I learned today that August is the best time to take it (because of scholarship eligibility), but at this point, I’m more concerned about getting a good score.  Well, at least now I think I’ve got enough self-control and will power now to keep me focused in my studying (made some changes here and there).  I’ll start documenting my prepping on this blog on [an almost] daily basis.  I’ve got some pretty good resources (forums, study materials, MindManager, books, etc) to turn to and really just comes down to how much I want to do well on this.  It’s good that the NBA Playoffs are over (one less distraction) and I can apply some of the lessons learned as inspiration to my studying. 

The GMAT is not a difficult test.  It’s definitely easier than the MCATs (Medical School) and LSATs (law school), but to score in the top 4-5%, still will require a lot of preparation.  I learned a lot of valuable lessons at work this past year and am beginning to fully realize how an MBA education will benefit me.     

Tomorrow, I will review Word Translations (permutations, combinations, overlapping sets, probability, etc) and work on the practice problems in the Official Guide (11th edition) and the Quantitative Review–both Problem Solving (PS) and Data Sufficiency (DS).

2006 NBA Finals again

For kicks, scroll down to “NBA Finals Forecast” and read the first sentence   

This Finals was probably the craziest NBA Finals I’ve seen–where one team looks like it’s going down 3-0 and then turns it up a couple notches to eek out a win at home for Game 3 and then win 3 straight after that.  The Heat in the first two and four-fifths games played as bad as any championship contender that I’ve seen.  In a lot of ways, it wasn’t so much that the Heat played well (an insane amount of turnovers for a team in the Finals)–except for when it mattered down the stretch—as it was the Mavericks choked during the last 3 or 4 minutes of games 3,5, and 6.  4 games were decided by 3 points or less! I remember over a year ago, I engaged in an online debate over whether Dwyane Wade is better than LeBron.  Ironically, it was against a Heat fan who contended that LeBron was better that I had this debate over.  I argued that Wade was more versatile since Wade not only could be the unquestioned leader of a team, but he could also play second fiddle (a la Scottie Pippen) to someone like Shaq (when it was necessary).  Wade is a better defender than LeBron and all he needs to work on it seems is a consistent outside jump shot.  Although I’m not a Heat fan, I rooted for them during the playoffs because 1) I wanted to see ‘Zo get his ring, and 2) I always thought D-Wade was underrated (compared to LeBron)–I usually root for the underdogs anyway.  I’ve been following the NBA since 1988 and ‘Zo is the best defender in the low-post that I’ve seen.  Not only is he tenacious on defense, but he was also the Hornets and Heat’s primary scoring option for years.  I felt he deserved to win the MVP award back in ‘99 when Malone won it (less than 100 votes separated Malone, Mourning, and Duncan).  And that whole kidney thing.  Crazy. I think I learned a lot from watching the NBA Finals this year.  How you gotta be hungry enough to win and gotta do all the little things and accept your roles/sacrifice.  From what i’ve been observing, Pat Riley’s quite a motivator and that may have been the difference in the series.  Too bad I don’t bet on sports…  The reality for the Heat is that they have bring in some younger players in order to defend their title.  I don’t know if they can repeat.  Dwyane Wade’s going to get better (scary thought, especially when he works on improving his on-the-ball defense with Kobe this summer, and the outside jump shot), Shaq is showing his age that he’s starting to look more like a liability than a dominant presence.  Looks like Mourning and GP will retire.  My pick for next year’s the Phoenix Suns.  Look how far they got without Amare.  Need I say more?    

Dwyane Wade is clutch crazy. 

Vegas Day 3 recap

Went to RA Sushi for lunch at the Fashion Mall (across from the Wynn).  The food was better than I had expected (chain restaurant) and the prices weren’t too bad (compared to those of other restaurants in the area).  Afterwards, went to MGM Grand to play poker ($2/$5) no-limit for 4.5 hours.  The competition at MGM Grand was probably the worst of the three casinos that I’d visited.  I was worried that I was playing too tight early on (J,6 offsuit is not a hand you want to play to a preflop raise of 7x the big blind).  I’d call a 15-20 dollar raise preflop with something half-decent hoping to flop a monster but never materialized to anything more than a fold on the turn.  Was down 200 or so after the first couple hours.  The weird thing was, when I started getting better cards (A,Q) and flopped something, the players usually didn’t back off as they’d keep calling my bets.  I guess none were astute enough to realize that I was only playing premium hands or if I was still in a hand that meant that I had something (because this was a loose table, it was more ‘correct’ to play tight than loose).  Ironically, it was these two girls who at times soft-played each other that picked up on it.  However, because I saw one of these girls whisper to the other girl after I’d just won a big pot (i presumed one girl was telling the other girl that if I bet out that meant I had it), I knew that the next time I was in a hand against them, if they checked on the turn or river, I would bet out 3/4 the size of the pot and they would fold.  And that’s exactly what happened.  These girl were horrible players (we kept saying they were “fearless” as a euphemism), yet they would put bad beats on the other players (one guy flopped a set and one of the girls made horrible calls to runner, runner, flush his ass).  I guess people didn’t seem to mind losing money to eye-candy with big breast implants and nosejobs (my guess is that they’re either A) was a Hooters girl at the new Hooters casino nextdoor, or B) stripper/centerfold, etc).   They both ended up being the big stacks at the table and I was so so waiting to bust ’em as I had position on them.  But I had to head over to the Wynn for the dinner buffet.  I ended up making $4 bucks at MGM Grand (i was up $200 with an hour left but decided to chase some flushes–the implied odds were too great considering that these fish couldn’t fold!). 

The dinner buffet at the Wynn was very impressive.  Every dish they had there (and there were A LOT) could be a dish at any good restaurant.  They had pretty much everything that you could wish for:  Some Chinese (awesome fried rice, mongolian beef, noodles, etc), Thai, Italian, prime rib, lamb chops, salads, king crab, desserts, etc.  It cost around $40 bucks a person after tax but it was well worth it.  It’s the same price as Bellagio’s Gourmet Dinner Buffet but much, much better, IMO.  I’ll definitely go back to the Wynn for the buffet again.

Overall, I accomplished my objectives in Vegas (in order of importance):  1) Spend time with people I haven’t seen in awhile, 2) Eat good food, 3) Poker.  Though I would’ve liked to have made money at the tables, I know that if I had played more, I’d be in the positive since the quality of my cards would regress towards the mean and these people can’t fold.  Definitely won big with #1 and #2, so all’s good.   

Vegas Day 2 recap

Went to The Mirage for lunch (Fin) and played some poker there.   Sat down at probably the only $2/$5 NL table ($500 max buy-in).  Had to wait 15-20 minutes for a seat (only full-ring available).  Bought in for $400 initially and was down 250 or so just within the first hour and a half, calling preflop raises (normally around 15-20 dollars) to see the flop and hopefully catch something. 

Only big pots that I got involved in first 4 hours:

1.  I’m holding 5c7c.  Flushd draw on the flop.  I bet out 3/4 the size of the pot.  I get 2 callers behind me.  Turn completes the flush.  I bet out about half the pot ($35).  The button raises me another $75.  I call (looking back, it was a bad call since 7 high flush in this situation isn’t that good).  River puts out another club.  I check and he goes all-in.  He shows A high flush.  Whew!  River card saves me 150 dollars or so. 

An hour or so later, the same guy who beat me on the above hand later took my stack after I bought in for another 200 more (had about 250-270 left around that point).  Still haven’t really won a big pot (3-4 hours have passed already).  I’m holding 10,8 offsuit and the flop comes 10, 10, 7.  I’m near the cutoff+1 and I check.  Everybody behind me checks.  On the turn, comes out a K with possible flush draw.  The big blind checks to me and I bet out 30.  He raises me for another 100 and I think about it and overeagerness on my part makes me call.  He goes all in for probably 90 more and I call.  He shows K,10…

Up to this point, I’m down $700 at the Mirage.  I buy-in for another $400.  There’s less players at the table now.  Admittedly, I was on semi-tilt for getting what seemed like an endless run of shit hands (i got 7,2 more often than I got overcards) and kept getting hands like J,3.  While it’s true that you’re playing the player(s) and not your cards, playing or raising with J3 frequently is usually a losing proposition, especially when there’s usually at least one other calling station in a hand. 

With only 5 other players at the table now, and law of averages kicking in (odds of getting cold cards continuously will then decrease over time), I was pretty optimistic.  The other players were either very aggressive or exhibited calling-station tendencies.  As long as there’s not another player with a similar style as mine, I’d be ok.  I’m not much of a full-ring player anymore and am most comfortable playing against 6 or less players (easier to read players).  I start getting KA (twice in a row)–one where I raised (i’m sure it got some people’s attention–I’m wearing my earphones so they think I’m listening to music when I’m really not–not plugged into anything! ) and the subsequent time I just limp.  I start winning and playing more aggressively.  I then get QJsuited (clubs) and raise 20 dollars preflop in mid-position.  I get 2 callers.  Flop comes out 3, 10, 8 rainbow.  I check the flop as everyone else checks.  The turn puts out a 9 (i hit my straight).  I check and one person bets out 25.  This girl who’s been playing overly aggressive and talking a lot of smack thinks for awhile and folds.  I then push in a $100 stack of chips.  He mutters to himself and says, “i know you don’t have the straight.  I think you’re trying to buy it.”  He calls.  The river puts out another 3.  He checks and I push in another stack of 100’s.  He immediately folds.  He claimed he was on a straight draw.  By the way he played it (and his pattern of betting on previous hands), I believe he’s actually telling the truth here.  After a couple more hands in the next hour or so, I built my stack from less than 400 to 790.  On one of the last hands, I’m holding A4 in the big blind and I call to see the flop.  The flop comes out Ah,4d,8d.  I check and another player behind me checks.  The button decides to bet out $25.  I push in a stack ($100).  He then moves all his chips in $170 on top.  I replay a few hands that I’d seen him play (a bad player who can’t fold) and knew that he could be holding Ak or even AQ or a flush draw.  I call.  He flips over two diamonds and luckily my hand holds up.  I end the night shortly after that hand and actually made $35 profit at Mirage after being down more than $700.   

Went to Bellagio The Buffet for dinner.  8.5 stars out of 10. 

Vegas Day 1 recap

My first day in Vegas didn’t go the way I’d hoped.  After skipping out on lunch (if you can believe that) I headed to Bally’s to play some low-stakes NL ($1/$2 100 min-300 max).  Sat down with $200.  I studied the players at the table and could tell which ones were novices, which ones were loose-aggressive, tight-passive, etc.  I was sandwiched between a calling station on my right and a loose cannon to my left. Though I wished it were flipped, I couldn’t complain about my seating.  The guy on my left got up and left after 15 minutes or so (his girlfriend called him up about some home networking issue).  A few minutes later, I’m looking down at 9,10spades on the cutoff.  The button raises to 15 dollars preflop.  The big blind calls.  I call.  The flop comes out Q,9,10 rainbow.  The big blind comes out betting 20 bucks.  I call (the range of hands I put him on are top pair, and possibly JJ, QQ, KK, or AA.  I’ve seen him overplay top pair in a couple hands already) .  The original raiser folds.  The turn puts out a 6 of clubs.  The big blind throws in 25.  I push all my chips in (80 more).  He calls.  River card: Q.  We flip and he shows AA.  My two-pair gets negated by his higher two pair.  Forced to rebuy. 

The next big hand I’m involved in: I’m holding QQ in the cutoff.  The button (different player this time) raises to $15. I call (heads-up now)  On the flop comes out 9, 8, 3 rainbow.  He bets out $60.  (an overbet).  I think for awhile (i had seen him overplay his pocket 10’s half-hour earlier (he rivered a full-house when the other guy turned trips) and thought he might have AK or maybe 10,10 or JJ.  So I call.  Turn card comes out a 2, he goes all-in.  I call.  He shows 99.  Rebuy again…

A fight broke out in the table next to ours.  Some guy got up and punched a guy and all hell broke loose.  Not sure what made him do it (you can’t give much credence to other people’s theories in Vegas, much less at a poker table).  What’s messed up is that no one got handcuffed.  You would think the person who threw the punch would have to leave the casino in handcuffs.  But all that happened was both were escorted out of the casino.  What a joke. 

On the last hand, I’m dealt AA (when everyone’s like “whoa, big raise”, I announced that this would be my last hand, so why not?”…which probably gave off a tell).  I raise to $35.  The guy to my right who has been playing somewhat unpredictably (though when I’m in the hand, he’s more conservative) calls.  On the flop, comes out 10, 10, 3 (flush draw).  He comes out betting 98 dollars.  This would be an all-in moment were I to continue playing.  I think for a minute or so and considering that he likely has a good hand here (just wasn’t sure how good).  I ended up folding. He shows KK.   

I play another 2-3 hours or so and didn’t win any big hands.  So after Day 1, my net profit: -$548. 

I was poker’d out and tired after 6-7 hours.   Grabbed a quick dinner and slept. 

NBA Finals Forecast

Miami in 6. 

A lot of so-called experts are picking Dallas to win, but here’s what I know:

1.  Miami beat a better team (Detroit) than Dallas did (Phoenix) in the same amount of games.  Dallas had home court advantage during their series in Phoenix.   

Miami’s biggest challenge will be to guard the perimeter well since that’s Dallas’ biggest strength.  Pat Riley may have to play Payton more than in the previous series (Jason Williams isn’t exactly known for his defense).  If they can slow down Dallas’ perimeter game, Miami wins. 

2.   Miami is the better defensive team.  You have two former Defensive Player of the Years in Zo and Payton (granted, they’re reserves).  Dwyane Wade’s defense and Josh Howard’s cancels each other out.  However, Dwyane Wade is the better passer and playmaker so he could find the best option on the court. 

I think Miami’s strategy should be either to prevent Dirk from getting anything going or focus on the other players (the latter being the more effective strategy).  Against Phoenix, Dirk had a field day against them because the Suns were significantly undersized.  Miami’s the exact opposite of the Suns.  No way Dirk gets to the basket as easily as he did against the Suns. 

3.  Miami has more experience.   

4.  Simply put, Miami is hungrier than Dallas is. 

Vegas

I’m going to Vegas for a few days.  I’ll probably check out 2-3 casinos and play some no-limit and limit hold ‘em (from the online reviews, Bally’s and MGM Grand is where I should go if I want to make some good money).  Maybe check out the one at the Venetian too.