NBA Finals Forecast

Miami in 6. 

A lot of so-called experts are picking Dallas to win, but here’s what I know:

1.  Miami beat a better team (Detroit) than Dallas did (Phoenix) in the same amount of games.  Dallas had home court advantage during their series in Phoenix.   

Miami’s biggest challenge will be to guard the perimeter well since that’s Dallas’ biggest strength.  Pat Riley may have to play Payton more than in the previous series (Jason Williams isn’t exactly known for his defense).  If they can slow down Dallas’ perimeter game, Miami wins. 

2.   Miami is the better defensive team.  You have two former Defensive Player of the Years in Zo and Payton (granted, they’re reserves).  Dwyane Wade’s defense and Josh Howard’s cancels each other out.  However, Dwyane Wade is the better passer and playmaker so he could find the best option on the court. 

I think Miami’s strategy should be either to prevent Dirk from getting anything going or focus on the other players (the latter being the more effective strategy).  Against Phoenix, Dirk had a field day against them because the Suns were significantly undersized.  Miami’s the exact opposite of the Suns.  No way Dirk gets to the basket as easily as he did against the Suns. 

3.  Miami has more experience.   

4.  Simply put, Miami is hungrier than Dallas is.