WSOP Event #8 recap

Here’s a recap of the 2010 WSOP Event #8 ($1,500 buy-in NLHE) on June 2nd. This was my first tournament at a casino (I normally focus on cash games) and was worth the cost of tuition and the chance to win $568,974 and a bracelet. The biggest mental adjustment for me heading in was reminding myself that tournament poker is about survival whereas cash games have more to do with +/- EV in the long run (pot odds + implied odds). Here are some of the key hands and observations made:

Key hand #1. 35 minutes into the tournament, blinds at 25/50. Player in MP+2 raised 3x the big blind. The button and SB called. I decide to call with J8 of diamonds in the BB. Flop comes Q,10,6 rainbow, and everyone checks. Turn card puts out a 9s, giving me a straight. Everyone checks around to the original raiser, who bets $500. With a possible flush draw (spades) out there, I raise to $1,400. Villain puts me all-in. Does he have KJ? He has been relatively quiet, yet it’s only been 35 minutes into the tournament. I think about it for awhile and thought the likelihood of him having one of the four possible sets out there was probably the most likely scenario, given that he raised preflop and checked on the flop. When I called, he uttered, “KJ” and thought he had KJ, but he showed QQ (luckily I didn’t muck!). Whew!

Key hand #2. Shortly after the first break, I had pocket 5’s in UTG. The button, who’s got me covered, raises to about 3.5x the BB. BB calls, I call and UTG+2, who has a couple thousand fewer chips than me, calls. Flop comes Ah,5h,10c. Everyone checks around until the button bets a little less than 2/3 the pot. BB folds, I call, UTG+2 calls. Turn puts out a Qd. I check, UTG+2 checks, the button bets about 2/3 of the pot. I go all-in for 3,000 more in chips. UTG+2 calls. Button thinks about it for awhile, and folds (I think he had AK). UTG+2 flips over KJ for the straight (he hit his gutshot…). I’m in bad shape as I need the board to pair. River card doesn’t help. I’m down to $1,900 in chips. Lesson learned: In tournament poker, don’t get too greedy by over-slowplaying and hoping to win a huge pot. Even though you’re ahead, some players will be on big draws. In this example, I should’ve made a big raise on the turn when the button bet. The UTG+2 holding KJ most likely would’ve folded his draw. Unfortunately, by simply calling the was giving him good odds to call there. The irony of this hand is that I made the same mistake as the player who let me catch my inside straight in Key hand #1.

Key hand #3. With only $1,900 in chips, I only have an M of only 5 (1M = cost of living for one round), I don’t really have much of a choice but to go in all-in or fold mode. Shortly after the second break, I have pocket 9’s in the big blind. The button raises to 3x the BB. I go all-in. The player on the button has $8,000 behind him…who looks like your typical online pro, who just moved from another table not too long ago, thinks about it for awhile and asks, “Do you want action?” 10 seconds later, he calls my all-in bet. He flips over AQo. Flop comes 9,9,K and I double-up. Not really a key hand I suppose, but somewhat memorable b/c I hit quads.

Key hand #4. With blinds and antes being pretty high, relative to my stack, I felt I needed to make a move soon if I wanted to have a decent chance of mounting a comeback. I’m in middle position with QJ of hearts. The button, who looks like another online pro, who has a lot of chips in front of him, makes a standard 3x bb raise. I don’t have much in front of me, about 13x the big blind. I just want to see a flop and decide on what to do. Flop comes Qc,7,c,10,d. Because I’ve been going all-in on 4 occasions already, I’m hoping the players are putting me on a very wide-range of hands, so I move all-in. The button shows AK and folds. In retrospect, I should’ve checked and let him continuation bet (although I haven’t seen him play many hands to know how frequently he c-bets). I think the earlier hand in which I let someone catch a straight on me, plus my overzealousness in winning more chips to stay alive, influenced my decision to move all-in pretty fast. I believe this was a key mistake as I likely could’ve extracted another 1,200-1,500 in chips from him if I let him cbet and I raise all-in, which would’ve gotten me out of all-in or fold mode.

Key hand #5. For most of the tournament, I was in all-in or fold mode. I must’ve gone all-in at least 10 times and got called twice. Winning once with four-of-a-kind and losing the other time, which knocked me out of the tournament, which I’ll get to later. After the dinner break, I moved to a different table with an M of 6 (you never want to have M<3). The player to my right looked familiar to me and I later learned that it’s Victor Ramdin, who is a professional poker player very active on the tournament scene. Very nice guy, btw. I go all-in at least 4 times and got no callers. I’ve been surviving by picking up blinds + antes, until my last hand, in which I was holding on AJo in the big blind. 500 players are left in the tournament (2,341 entrants). My stack had dropped to between 5-6M’s, which is probably just above the amount needed to get most people at my table to fold to my all-in bets. UTG+1 bets 3x the bb, everyone folds until it gets to me. I go all-in and he calls. He shows AK of clubs. I’m dominated and my hand doesn’t improve. I’m out.

Overall, I had a lot of fun playing and no regrets. I made at least a couple of costly mistakes that I can learn from, and feel that I did alright considering that I didn’t really get a lot of good starting hands. The best starting hand I got was pocket 10’s (which I had to fold on the turn to a big bet in an earlier hand). Never got any of the premium hands like AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or AK. Made it to around 500 out of 2,341 entrants, not too shabby for a first tourney. Until next year.

my worst beat thus far

I went to the dog track today to play some poker ($1/$2 no limit, $100 max buy-in) and suffered what was my worst bad beat in a live cash game. I know, I usually roll my eyes too when I hear people sob about their bad beats, but this one was particularly bad, considering that I trapped the guy and how my opponent makes the huge calls to catch his inside straight is beyond me. Here’s a replay of the hand.

Player in mid-position (who has >$500 in front of him) raises to $12 preflop. I call (with about $170 in front of me, and I have position on the mid-position player) holding 6,7 offsuit, and one player behind me calls. The flop comes out 5s,6c,8c,. The original raisor bets out $20. I raise to $60. The guy behind me folds. Turn card’s a 9 of spades. My opponent checks. I bet out $80. (leaving me with $30 left) My opponent calls. River card is a 7, putting a straight on the board. My opponent moves all-in for the rest of my chips. I have no choice but to call. My opponent shows pocket 10’s.

I looked at my opponent and congratulated him on his ‘nice hand’ (although I wanted to say “nice catch, you moron!”) and called it a day.

How this guy called my big raise and caught his gutshot (actually, a runner, runner, if you consider the 9 that gave me the straight on the turn) at such a prohibitively-high ‘cost’ (with little to no implied odds) is really beyond me. But whatever. I hope I have more bad beat stories to tell, because that means I’m at least making the right play and over time, these donkeys will pay me off.

Is “Competitiveness” a strength or a weakness?

currently listening to: Andras Schiff playing Mendelssohn’s Songs Without Words (selected)

While reading the Businessweek “Competition” Issue, I wondered how I measured up to my peers in terms of “competitiveness”.  Here’s what I know about myself (based on my experiences):

1.  I’m not very good playing second fiddle; i need to be el maestro. 

2.  I like to study people’s intentions, desires, and fears.  In short, I enjoy applying game theory to practically everything I do.  I believe these are essential for effective negotiating and understanding people. 

3.  Nothing motivates me more than when another underestimates me (I make them regret it).  Controlled anger can be a powerful force.  I’m usually at my best under those circumstances and believe me, nothing is more inspirational than the thought of my slighters/doubters wiping their own dung off their faces. 

4.  I’m not sure if this was by chance or what, but I don’t remember ever getting picked on by a bully.  There may have been non-bullies who tried to pick on me, but usually I got them to cut it out :)  

5.  You can’t put me on a hand (don’t even try).  I’ve had people tell me that they can ‘read’ me, but so far, those who’ve made such a claim have lost huge pots against me shortly afterwards. 

For the record, the above is simply my way of motivating myself to keep improving.  

I would rate myself a 9.5 out of 10 for ‘competitiveness’.  But is that necessarily a good thing? 

the best hand I’ve ever played

  This is what went down in Wednesday’s home game:  I call in early-mid position with 10, 7 offsuit.  A below-average player 4 seats to my left raises 5x the BB.  A good player a two seats to her left calls the raise, and I call, as well as one other person on my left.  The flop came out Js,9s,7c, with two spades out there.  I check to the raiser and she bets out small (around $3) and the player to her left calls. I call.  On the turn, puts out 6 of clubs, so two possible flush draws out there plus straight possibilities. 

Some background info:  A week earlier, I had watched footage of Stu Ungar drawing to an inside straight to win his 1997 WSOP title (he did this at another tournament that he won).  Earlier, on the drive there, I had mentioned to someone that I was going to draw to an inside straight tonight.

I figured the raiser had a hand like AK and I could probably take the pot down by going all-in–representing the straight (because there were two possible flush draws out there, a player with a made straight would try to protect his hand by making it very expensive to see the next card).  My chip count was over 6-7 times the size of the pot and I thought only someone with at least two pair here would call me (i didn’t think my opponents had that good of a hand there to call, based on how they played the hand).  So I pushed all my chips in.  The good player few seats to my right asked for a chip count and as I counted out the chip, the raiser calls….and the good player thinks for awhile and then folds.  The raiser shows AA and celebrates (prematurely).  Another player remarks, “He’s got the straight….Show the straight.”.  Of course I didn’t have the straight and as I turned my 10,7o over, it drew some ‘wtf?’ reactions at the table.  I was kind of surprised that someone with AA would call my all-in there, but then again, this player is notorious for overplaying her hands.  I needed either an 8 or a 7 to win the hand (6 outs).  I was way behind in the hand.  River card = 8.  I take down the pot as if I had expected to win it as everyone’s in disbelief.    Some might think that was a horrible play.  But in my defense, I had reasons to take a stab at it.  There was a good chance that everyone would fold to my all-in.  And even if I get called, I still had outs and potentially put a bad beat on someone.  I’m usually on the losing end of bad-beat stories (which is actually a good thing because that means I get my money in when I’m ahead).  But I wanted to be able to tell a good bad beat story–that I put on someone else! And I figured, even if I lost the hand, the fact that I played it the way I did will throw people off or make people second-guess themselves when they play against me.  This was the first time I made that kind of all-in bluff (drawing to inside straight).  But more importantly, it was the best hand I’ve ever played.      

some thoughts on this year’s WSOP

Based on odds alone, an unknown player will win this year’s WSOP.  However, if I had to bet on a pro to win it, right now, it’d be Minh Ly (unless he’s out already).  Minh’s one of the most underrated players and excels at both tournament and cash games (he plays in the big game).  For whatever reason, he’s not as feared as say, Phil Ivey, Johnny Chan, Gus Hansen, etc, so I think that gives him an edge.  He doesn’t give anything away at the table and he can switch between playing very aggressively (borderline reckless at times) and conservatively.  He made it pretty deep (19th) at last year’s Main Event.   

Hopefully, I’ll have time to play next year.    

I watched this documentary on Stu “The Kid” Ungar last night.  Apparently, he was that good in poker.  He had that clairvoyance where he could sense with incredible precision whether he was ahead or behind in a hand.  And from Wikipedia, he was an even better gin rummy player–so good that the game lost popularity after he killed the game (no one dared to play against him). 

bad call

I ran into this hand this morning. While this is a difficult situation to be in, the proper play would be to fold to the big reraise. You gotta figure that AQ is a common starting hand, your opponent hit a higher set, or was holding 89/Q9. While it’s possible that your opponent may be holding AA, AK, or KJ/K10/J10, usually you’re beat in this situation. For me to take it to the next level, I need to be that much more disciplined, especially in these types of difficult situations.

***** Hand History for Game (?) *****
$400 NL Texas Hold’em – Wednesday, April 26
Table Table
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 4: TPBoT ( $958.10 )
Seat 5: Hero ( $467.70 )
Seat 1: move_all ( $464.93 )
Seat 6: SoerenS ( $473.80 )
Seat 2: WhyNotBluff1 ( $529.40 )
Seat 3: JWL76 ( $157.70 )
JWL76 posts small blind [ $2 ].
TPBoT posts big blind [ $4 ].

Holecards:
Dealt to Hero [ ]
CALL Hero , $4
RAISE SoerenS, $20
FOLD move_all
FOLD WhyNotBluff1
FOLD JWL76
FOLD TPBoT
CALL Hero , $16

Flop: (Pot: $46)
[ ]
CHECK Hero
BET SoerenS, $40
RAISE Hero , $110
ALL-IN SoerenS [ $413.80 ]
ALL-IN Hero [ $337.70 ]

Turn: (Pot: $947.5)
[ ]

River: (Pot: $947.5)
[ ]
Hero shows [ ] three of a kind tens .
SoerenS shows [ ] three of a kind jacks .
SoerenS wins $6.10 from side pot #1 with three of a kind jacks .
SoerenS wins $938.40 from the main pot with three of a kind jacks .
Game #4097287829 starts.

new technique

Here’s a tip for anyone playing cash games online:  When you’re playing, have in front of you (or hold in your hand) the amount that you bought in for–in cash–to help reinforce good plays.  Tell yourself that a bad play will cost you this amount that you’re holding in your hand.

hard lesson

For whatever stupid reason, I decided to play out of my bankroll again by jumping to 2,000 NL.  While it’s not the end of the world, I pretty much wiped out my winnings from this past weekend.

I will NEVER play out of my bankroll again.

I will NEVER play out of my bankroll again.

I will NEVER play out of my bankroll again.

(repeat infinity times).

calling someone’s bluff

***** Hand History for Game (?) *****
$400 NL Texas Hold’em – Friday, April 07, 21:42:09 ET 2006
Table Table 96530 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: CheckLaise ( $561.40 )
Seat 3: takeit68 ( $605.55 )
Seat 5: BAMABOB51 ( $215.91 )
Seat 2: Hero ( $399.50 )
Seat 6: zok519 ( $374.50 )
BAMABOB51 posts small blind [ $2 ].
zok519 posts big blind [ $4 ].

Holecards:
Dealt to Hero [ ]
RAISE CheckLaise, $15
CALL Hero , $15
FOLD takeit68
FOLD BAMABOB51
FOLD zok519

Flop: (Pot: $36)
[ ]
BET CheckLaise, $24
RAISE Hero , $63
RAISE CheckLaise, $128
CALL Hero , $89

Turn: (Pot: $340)
[ ]
CHECK CheckLaise
CHECK Hero

River: (Pot: $340)
[ ]
ALL-IN CheckLaise [ $394.40 ]
ALL-IN Hero [ $232.50 ]
CheckLaise shows [ ] a pair of threes .
Hero shows [ ] two pairs eights and threes .
CheckLaise wins $161.90 from side pot #1 with a pair of threes .
Hero wins $803 from the main pot with two pairs eights and threes .

Piano Masterclass and more

On Saturday morning, I performed the Chopin Etude Op. 25, No. 12 in C minor on stage.  I had a rough start considering the adrenaline from watching the first performer get absolutely roasted on stage by Dr. Penneys.  I had a tough time adjusting the bench (couldn’t tell if I was going up or down) so I couldn’t lower the height.  It was quite embarrassing to say the least and kinda rattled me a bit.  After a couple minutes, I gave up and just played through the piece.  Not surprisingly, then, it wasn’t my best performance (hit more wrong notes than what I’m used to).  I recall during the opening passages (where I  was still adjusting to the instrument), I told myself to just focus on the melodic notes and dynamic range of the piece, which I think I did an ok job of.   After my performance, she went onstage and started asking me some questions.  Apparently she was peeved by my taking so long to adjust the bench and follow through.  I had rolled up my sleeves since it was kinda warm in the music hall, and she had a few comments about it (“you should tape your sleeves to your arms or cut off the sleeves”).  She made me walk on stage to the bench probably 3 times or so and just sit and play without taking my sweet ass time to get ready (or even roll my sleeves).  The decision to play (and how to play) should occur before you walk on stage.  And all the unnecessary movements and time spent between adjusting the chair and playing will just make you even more nervous.

She then asked if I knew where the middle of the piano was.  Apparently, I didn’t.  She pointed to the Steinway emblem on the piano as the center of the piano (which was about where the E-flat black key was), and to always sit in the middle of the piano.  I had always thought it was at middle C.

Sitting in the middle of the piano and far enough from the keys (enough to be able to stand up without using your hands for support), posture, and planting your lower leg/foot (more or less right angle to the floor) will give you better support and balance.  Especially with this Etude, which requires a strong trunk.

The other thing was that I was leaning too much towards to the bass register and that my playing was clearly biased towards those notes.  She wanted me to play the accented top notes (with equal emphasis as bottom accented notes)–think “ocean waves crashing against rocks on both sides”.

When she demonstrated this, I also noticed that she laid her hands pretty flat when playing the opening passage, with very minute digital movements–though every note was played clearly.

There were 5 or so performers in all.  The pieces included the Chopin etude, Chopin’s Fantaisie Impromptu, Chopin’s Ballade No. 4, a Liszt Concert Etude, Rachmaninioff Corelli Variations, etc.  Dr. Penneys was very tough critic though I believe she meant well.  She has a way of saying something that you aren’t likely to ever forget.  Even if you’re supremely talented, she’ll still put you in your place.  Her blunt comments reminded me of Simon from American Idol and Donald Trump from The Apprentice shows, but the difference is that her criticisms are intended to motivate those who are serious about music to improve their playing, whereas I can’t say the same for Simon or Donald.

Needless to say, I wasn’t too pleased with my performance and afterwards just drove back to my place and took a nap.  I realized that performing onstage in a music hall is a lot different than practicing in the practice rooms or at your home.  You have to adjust to not only the pressure, but also to the instrument, and the acoustics of the building/room.  On the positive side, most of her criticisms of my playing had more to do with the mental aspect rather than the musical.  She did comment that I played the Etude “well”, but it could be better if I incorporate those things.   During Monday’s lesson, Dr. N commented that she thought my performance went very well and that she felt Dr. Penneys thought the same.  And that Dr. Penneys comments were complimentary (really?).  I told her that I didn’t necessarily feel that way (one of those moments where you just wish you’re wrong) but maybe I’m just being too hard on myself?  But I did come out of this experience a lot more knowledgeable about music, piano performance, etc.

Later that night  (Saturday), I went to a friend’s house for poker night.  They threw a surprise birthday thing for me and it was fun.  Admittedly, I was still upset about what happened earlier in the day, so I took it out on everyone at the table.  Played from 9:20pm till sunrise (6:45am).  I was just in the zone that night–making the right reads and knowing when to play aggressive, when to bluff, when to fold, etc.   You know it’s your night when you can sense that you’re ahead by a little bit (your top pair with 10 kicker beats his top pair with 7 kicker) and push him all in for the rest of his chips–knowing that he’ll call.  The final hand of the night was reminiscent of the final scene from The Cincinatti Kid.  I raised on the button with K5o and the big blind calls.  The flop comes out J65.  I bet out a little less than the size of the pot and my opponent raises me three times the amount.  I call (hoping to get either a 5 or K on the turn).  The turn card’s a 5 of spades.  He bets about two-thirds the size of the pot.  I had already calculated his chip count before the flop so I knew that if I made a medium-sized raise here, he will probably try to put me all in (if he’s on a draw or with top pair).  Plus, he most likely can’t put me on trips.  So I raised him about 2.5 times. He calls.  On the river, a 2 of diamonds.  He goes all in (2-3 times the size of the pot).  I think about how he played this hand and wondered how likely is it that he was holding 34 and chased an open-ended straight or had a boat.  Knowing the player and remembering some memorable hands between us, I thought I had 70% odds of having the best hand here.  After 4-5 minutes of deliberation, I call.  My trip 5’s held up. Biggest pot of the night.  Fittingly, a record was set that night.  I just wished it could’ve been the other way around– en fuego at the piano masterclass and lose all my money at the poker table instead.

Poker-related

Three weeks ago I created a poker log using Excel. For the columns, there are Notes on my play, Net gain/loss, Hourly rate, Number of tables, Game description, Grade, Time start, Time end, Time spent, and probably the most important–Expenses (which are the amount lost due to bad play). Bad play=chasing flushes, straights, sets, etc with bad odds (pot odds and/or implied odds), bad bluffs, bad calls, playing out of position, etc.

A lot of people use the BB per hour to describe their performance. I came up with my own: Profit/Expenses (due to bad play) ratio. For instance, today, I turned two pair (A8o) and I raised the original better (he had bet 30) to 75. He called. River card put out a K. He bets 100 (he’s first to act). I had reason to believe he had me beat (most likely AK), but I wasn’t disciplined enough to fold there (sure enough, he had AK). Though most probably couldn’t lay that down, I still consider it a bad play. So in that column, I’d put down 100 bucks for amount due to bad play.

If you get sucked out on, (e.g., if someone catches a straight flush on you on the turn–you flopped Q high flush–after he calls your big raise–and catches his one outer on the turn. This happened to me last Saturday…), that would not count as expenses (due to bad play).
Although it’s not mathematically correct to say that if you add the denominator and numerator, you’ll get your theoretical maximum earnings (if you played optimally), it helps to think that though (‘penny saved is a penny earned’). Even if you try to pull a fast one and get lucky, that’s still accounted for in the numerator.

I think for very good players (top 15-20 percentile), the profit/expense (due to bad play) is around 2:1. I’m guessing that the upper echelon (top 5-10 percent) is somewhere between 3:1 and 4:1. After crunching three weeks worth of data, I’ve noticed that I come out ahead 3 out of every 4 sessions (i.e., usually means win at least half the buy-in amount). However, the times that I do lose, I lose almost twice as much as when I win. This probably suggests that the times that I do win, I’m disciplined enough to know when to quit and the times that I lose, I’m probably too stubborn to admit that it’s just not my day and probably should cut my losses.

My current [(profit)/(expense due to bad play)]ratio is 2:1. Hopefully, in a few weeks, I can say that my ratio in March was 3:1 (while maintaining my average hours per day to 1.5 hrs/day).

My goal is to collect enough data to do some trend analyses to spot patterns. By tracking your progress every time you play, you can catch yourself playing poorly (losing X amount for 4 consecutive sessions AND playing more than 2 hours might be a red flag) that you otherwise would be oblivious to.

Party for Free 100k Guaranteed

Played in an online freeroll tourney (buy-in was 20,000 frequent player points) last night. I played pretty solid throughout despite not hitting any sets. I had a couple lucky breaks for me when it mattered: On one hand, I was shortstacked and holding 10Jo and I flopped an open ended straight draw. The guy bets out around 3k chips which is 3/4 of my stack. I raise him all in and I catch my K on the river. He had AA.

I was getting shortstacked again and was dealt AA. A player in mid-position bet out 2400, I raise to 4700. He calls. My hand holds up. There were probably a couple hands after that where I called someone’s all-in knowing that I was ahead (though not by much). The blinds were going up pretty fast and the hand that I busted out on: I’m holding AKo in the small blind (3,000). I have around 26,000 chips. The button bets 10,000. I raise him all-in. The big blind goes over the top all-in for 57,000 (that’s when I knew I was up against KK or AA). The button calls with QQ. AA actually held up.
Finished 188 out of 1671 (top 11%).

Although one could make the argument that I should’ve just folded my hands until I was in the money (just 8 more places to go to make at least 80), I wasn’t gonna pussyfoot around; I’m playing to win. It was just an unfortunate situation (for me to have a chance to win, I needed to win big pots at that juncture…if only I could have hit a set during the tourney…). For 3.5 hours of tourney experience and being able to meet my goal set last week (make it in top 10-15%), so yeah, it’s all worth it.

hubris

Last night, OmniX and I went to play in a live poker tournament. The buy-in was 25 chips and first place takes home 320, second 250, etc. There were about 32 players (8 players x 4 tables). The hosts really know how to throw a tournament. It starts off with mouth-watering barbeque pork kabobs, some bourbon chicken, sandwiches, buffalo wings, some noodles, chips and dip, and chocolate cupcakes.

I couldn’t have asked to be at a better table to start things off. Most of the players seated at my table were players I’ve played against before and I’ve memorized how they played certain hands, position, etc. Half of the table have shown a propensity to call in the past. I was doing ok in the beginning until I got involved on this one hand with AJ of diamonds. Blinds were 50-100. I was on the button and the guy to my right bet 400 preflop. I called. The flop comes out Ac8h9c. He bets 600 and I raise to 1500. He immediately re-raises me all-in. I think for maybe 2 minutes. I reviewed how the hand was played and knew he didn’t have two pair. It was unlikely he was on a draw (although it’s possible he thought I was on a draw). He could have a set of Aces, but seeing how he played the previous 15 hands or so, I knew he was a conservative player and that he wouldn’t have played a set that way. Based on his demeanor and by the way he reacted to my question, “You have AK?” (the way his eyes moved revealed that he was surprised that I could put him on that hand + slight shrug), I knew he had either AK or AQ, with remote possibility that he was holding a set. He definitely wanted me to call his all-in (which ruled out KK, QQ). Calling would mean risking my tournament life since it was for the rest of my chips (1,175).
So after a couple minutes of deliberation, I decided that I’m here to gamble (worst case scenario, I lost 25 chips), knowing that I was behind in the hand (3 to 1 underdog) and was hoping for a suckout. If I won that pot, I’d be the chip leader and the players at my table were going to pay me off for the next hour or so. And if I lost, I at least can show people that i can make an accurate read and that I’m willing to gamble (in future tournaments, perhaps they’ll remember this..).

I called and he showed AKo. Turn card A, River 4. Finished 31st out of 32. Hubris.

the pros and cons of pros and cons

One thing I’ve learned from poker is that it’s often more correct to play out different scenarios in your head than to compare the pros and cons of a situation. This is directly applicable to Business where making the right decision is king. While listing the pros and cons make for a good starting point, how many times have you wrote down your list of pros and cons and not seem to be getting anywhere? If pros and cons don’t seem to be helping you in your decision, then start playing out the different scenarios in your head (best case, worst case, and most realistic scenarios).

Sit-N-Go’s (SNG)

Today, I played 10 SNG’s today (each SNG takes about 40-50 minutes on average to complete). No, not all 10 at once. But two at a time. Started off making the money in the first 4 SNG’s I played in (three 3rd place finishes, one second place finish). Then I didn’t hit in the next four. Finally, getting third again in the last SNG. Why no first place finishes? I got outdrawn 2 or 3 times (one one hand, I’d have AA, the other person’s got 88. He raises me all-in preflop and he hits his set). I think I played well for the most part, and the results may suggest a regression towards the mean. While I haven’t played enough SNG’s for the results here to be of any statistical value, it may be inferred from this that playing SNG’s, at least for me, is not very profitable. Still, it’s a lot of fun and I’ll probably play on average of 5-7 SNG’s per week. I’m keeping track of my SNG win/loss records so I’ll have better idea of where I stand in a month or so.